Chief Minister of Tamilnadu state, M K Stalin has announced that Hosur, a city roughly 40km south east of Bengaluru will have a new inernational airport. Not to be outdone, Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah pushed ahead with plans for a second airport in Bengaluru even announcing potential locations. What’s going on?

Will there be too many airports? Or this is good news? Let us analyse!

There are several cities or metropolitan areas served by multiple airports. New York is served by as many as seven of which at least 3 - JKF, LaGuardia and Newark are huge airports serving millions each. And then there’s the Europort at Basel that serves three countries! Closer to home, ignoring Indian examples like Delhi or Mumbai, we have very few cities with two functional international airports, practically speaking. China has four cities with two each. Jakarta, Taiwan, Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur are served by two each.

An important factor most people seem to ignore is that if a city has two airports, they are usually not equally big. One of them tends to be much larger and dominates traffic. For example, Jakarta’s Soekarno Hatta serves nearly 8 times as many as its sister Halim-Perdana. Suvarnabhumi is twice as much as the old Don Mueang. Government policies and passenger convenience play important roles along with ability of the catchment area to sustain the airports. In the case of Bengaluru it is safe to assume that KIAL will serve a much larger number of passengers given its advantage as incumbent with excellent transport connections by the time these other airports get going. If we are looking at private investors and not taxpayers footing the bill for development, this becomes a key factor.

The other aspect that has attracted much media attention is the existing agreement with KIAL not to have a competing aiport within a 150km radius. That is not a small area! It extends all the way to Mysore to the South West, Hassan to the West, Anantapur to the North, Vellore to the East and Salem to the South! But the good news is, it expires in 2033, and given how long things take to move in India, this may not even be an issue. However, the new investor, even if it is not KIAL itself, will probably work in synergy to ensure mutually damaging competition will be avoided to the extent it can. The other aspects is of course, such managed competition is anti-competitive and anti-consumer. Planners have a tough job balancing all aspects.

Competition - it’s good news!

Looking at the prospect of BOTH Hosur and the second Bengaluru airport becoming reality, we are looking at THREE airports serving the metro area. Of course, TN is spinning it as Hosur airport and not Bengaluru’s and Karnataka too is looking at serving under developed areas etc. But you don’t have to be an expert to realise a private investor will be looking at Bangalore market and not Doddabalapur residents! This element of competition between the two new announcements has largely not been discussed by mainstream media. It is sure not a pleasant thing to talk about given both are ruled by INDI alliance.

As Mumbai and Delhi are yet to have two functional airports and given it takes years for traffic to stabilise and usage patterns emerge, planners are likely to go by international examples as well as projections in their planning. How far these match eventual reality is to be seen.

Be that as it may, such competition is good news because it is of the good sort. We have far too much sloth, lethargy and delays to worry about things happening. Our worry must primarily be about things NOT happening! The only concern is if both states end up spending a lot of taxpayer money on rosy projections and ending up with white elephants. But that is not a big issue right now as details are scarce and there is miles to go.

It is also heartening to read that Congress MLAs are competing to secure the airport for their constituency. This is great news.

Location, location and location!

Both airports need to be located strategically - this hardly needs emphasis. Looking at the Bengaluru 2 - it is somewhat odd that Tumakuru is one of the chosen locations, since KIAL is in the same direction. Without high speed rail it would be hard to get Bengalurians to travel to an airport that’s even further away! Perhaps nearer to Mysuru will be a great choice given how hard it has been to get Mysuru airport to attract traffic. With Bangalore providing bulk of the bums on seats, the maths would be different and it should lead to positive synergies for the entire area. Land availability may be an issue and may finally end up deciding the location. As far as Hosur is concerned, any investor would prefer the location to be nearer to Bengaluru and its suburbs that are practically next door, rather than away. But this may not suit the stated objective of TN state government - that of balanced regional development. It may also trigger a slugfest with Karnataka especially if regimes change in either state. At one point there was considerable resentment towards Hosur industrial area because it led to increased population pressure on Bengaluru and its creaking infrastructure while revenues and jobs were in TN. But today people tend to focus on synergies. However, such concerns are natural in a country like India, even before you add the masala of politics and regionalism.

Yet another dimension that needs to be considered is the effect on Salem airport - run by AAI. As you can see from the map, positioning the new Hosur AP closer to its own catchment area will lead to excess capacity and sub-optimal usage of one or both the airports. Remember that Salem is an international airport.

Thus, a sweet spot needs to be found that

1. Not too far from Bengaluru and its rich captive user base
2. Not too close to Salem AP
3. Where land is available
4. Not cut into Parandur aiport’s catchment which may stretch 60km+ west.

No doubt this is challenging and it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I am assuming here that an international airport, not just a small domestic one is being planned. Even if domestic, many of these aspects will be significant.

Protest ecosystem

Knowing how things work in India, a thousand NGOs will bloom and assorted leftist “activists” will start planning fundraisers and Europe trips to see how this can be stopped or turned into a lucrative cash cow to sustain a few years of good life shedding tears for the subaltern.

The fact that both states are not ruled by BJP will help as the local and global ecosystem that sustains such protest business will not show as much interest. So no Rihanna tweets, Trudeau statements, State Dept briefings, NYT Opeds or UN appeals. Left to themselves, without the oxygen of publicity and amplification, genuine protests from the affected villagers will wither away. Sad to say, this is not bad because if not them, their children will need the development, investments and jobs.

The remarkable absense of any discussion in mainstream media on the competitive or zero-sum aspects of the developments, that cannot be dismissed, shows this already.

Some suggestions

Ideally, existing HAL airport in Bengaluru city must be revived for domestic short haul flights. This is a quick win for everyone, including Bengalurians and even for Hosur residents, once metro connectivity gets going. TN and KA can work on a joint airport along the lines of Basel Europort which will be located close to the borders, serve both states and power regional development. This avoids unnecessary duplication of efforts and the inevitable decline or denial of one - either even before implementation, or worse, after funds have been poured in.

The bidding must EXCLUDE KIAL to have meaningful competition. If this means that we wait for 2033 to inaugurate it, so be it. That would be far more worthwhile in the long run. As it is, getting it going will take that long, if not longer. This will put pressure on operators to have sensible user fee, top class facilities and continued innovation. It will also help airlines as higher competition would mean lower handling and other charges. Ideally, the airport should target NEW business and not just Bengaluru residents. This will spead growth, jobs and prosperity instead of overcrowding places already crowded and practically unlivable.

Whichever way it goes, we welcome creation of much needed infrastructure. We wish BOTH states all the best!